Why there has been a pause in global warming

The "pause" is due to boreal winters cooling, which is evident in the following NH land only data from WFTs, using the crutem3 data. Here is the annual data, by year.

Here is each month. 

 It's almost impossible to see the woods for the trees, so here's the monthly data, clearly showing how only the boreal winter is cooling.

April

May

June

July

August

All the NH warm months show warming.

But December does not.

And January shows cooling

February shows cooling

It is the extreme cooling of the NH winters that has caused the pause. You now know more than most people at this point in time.  

How can you know the US is not experiencing global warming? Let me show you.

Go to the CAG page and select the trend.  See for yourself.

Using 1988 shows a cooling trend.  Using 1995 really shows it.  And using 2002 will freak most people out.

1995-2014 Minimum temperature trend -14.75 F a century

1995-2014 maximum temperature trend - 9.54 F a century

If you are freaking out, just select 1970 and you will feel warmer.

This is the cherry picking way to assure everybody things are warming up.  It's complete nonsense, but if it makes you feel warmer, then who am I to hammer punch you with some facts?

The astute observer who understands global warming will note that the min trend far exceeds the max, which is completely against the global warming theory;  This might be explained here.

More facts that won't really matter (cooling boreal winters)

That the boreal winters have been cooling is pretty much a known fact among researchers.  The reason for this is currently anything but settled science.  These papers show why it's a fact.

Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus
Complete paper here (full paper pdf)

Trends in hemispheric warm and cold anomalies (full paper pdf)

Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather (full paper pdf)

Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling (full paper pdf)

Decadal Fluctuations in Planetary Wave Forcing Modulate Global Warming in Late Boreal Winter

Full paper PDF

Improved Skill of Northern Hemisphere Winter Surface Temperature Predictions Based on Land–Atmosphere Fall Anomalies

Full paper PDF

This paper may explain why it's happening.
Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2 (full paper pdf)

The short version is this. CO2 trapping of infrared radiation is not the ultimate cause of global warming. (this is in the paper)

It's the feedbacks from the initial warming (from CO2) that models show will cause the expected warming. These feedbacks result in short wave (visible light) causing the expected warming, as there is less snow, ice and sea ice reflecting it back into space.

If this study is correct, then it could explain why the boreal winters have been cooling.  Because instead of less snow and ice, there has been more, leading to that drastic January and February cooling trend.

Somebody in France read a post here!

This is a fact, because Google says it happened.  Twice.

Now either two people in France looked at this blog, or the same person did twice.

Or, and  this is why facts are so flexible, a search engine hit the blog.  Or a spam robot. The actual fact is Google says two hits came from France.  That is the only actual fact, and even that could be an error by Google.

So I don't actually know if somebody in France read anything here.

It's an example of why facts are things to be skeptical of.

Of course Google also tells me that the following happened as well.

Germany, Norway and Ukraine all show one hit on this blog.  At some point you have to believe something about data.

The Sanssensus

The opposite of consensus

Why facts are the last thing that matter when it's Global Warming (updated Sept 11 2023)

This is a research report about how you can know facts won't matter, and it's also an educational and fun evidence based science post about climate change and global warming.

tl;dr version - the data shows why climatecentral is wrong, and I am right.

Here is how to win every argument, and how to actually argue.

(updated Dec 4 2014 to include latest data from GISS and the NCDC)

ClimateCentral.org produced a "research report", (which is a lot like this blog post, where you take a bunch of FACTS and tell people what is what, because FACTS are how Science! gets done, and producing a "research report" that says something about reality, well, that's important) and they claim US winters are WARMING faster than ever (winter warming accelerated) and winters are warming faster than any other season.  You can read the entire report by following the link.

(update Dec 5 2014 - new climatecentral winter report)

The fast down and dirty, for those with limited time. Here is how climatecentral describes the state of Alabama, which shows cooling for a hundred year trend.

That's right, it's called warming by climatecentral.  A state that is cooling is described as warming.  See how facts can be adjusted?  Just because it looks like it's actually cooling, that is beside the point.  

Speaking of adjusting, since they put out the "report", the NCDC adjusted the data they used, making the report wrong.  (clicking on image will show it full sized)

Notice how the trend is different now? But that is an entire topic, How data gets changed.

The actual real facts are a little different than climatecentral presents them, and this will be obvious after you see them. But that will not matter in this case, since facts depend on what somebody tells you they mean.

You see how they say "winter warming accelerated almost everywhere"?  That's just not the whole truth, and facts will show this.  Even the NCDC data, which has been changed recently, still doesn't show that.  In fact, it shows that summers are warming a LOT faster than winters, for the US.

US summer trend

US winter trend

This actually matches the NH land trend, which also shows how summers are warming, but winters are not.  In fact, winters are cooling! Let the facts speak for themselves.

You see how facts work now?   Because facts won't matter (to some peoples) they will say "Yeah but that is just short term", so you show them thirty years of data, and that also show the same thing, summers warming much faster than winters.  

US winter trend

US summer trend

These are actual facts, right from the official NCDC so you can't argue against them.  Not that this will stop anyone who believes winters are warming faster.

The thirty year trends globally also show this.

Now you might think that would end it, but you would be wrong.  They will just say "So?".

(this is the ultimate end point when facts somebody doesn't like are involved)

So you show them the GISS global data, which is also official data and facts. This clearly shows how summers are warming faster than winters, which really annoys somebody who is sure winters are warming the fastest.

GISS winter trend

Of course they will say "it's too short a time period", because that's how to avoid facts, so you show them 30 years of data.

At which point somebody will try to switch the goal posts, or go off in a huff. Because the facts hammer punched them so hard they realize I am right. Nobody likes somebody else being right, especially about something like global climate change.

Global warming theory says winters have to warm faster as CO2 level rise. You can see this sort of winter warming in the fact based image below.

You can also see how that isn't happening in the image below.  OK  maybe you can't see  it, but scientists can, and they are who matters.

This sort of evidence based science annoys some people, because it doesn't show what they WANT it to show, which is a problem.  They act like when facts don't support you, those facts don't matter.  Which is hilarious. Unless it means your funding dries up, then it sucks.

Here's more facts, which really don't support global warming theory.  This doesn't mean the theory is wrong, it means the facts are wrong.  Winter is cooling, when it should be warming more than any other season.

Summers are warming.

GISS zonal data for winter trend

GISS zonal data for summer trend

The US data matches this, with a clear trend of cooling winter temperatures, and warming summer temperatures.

You can check all these facts for yourself, because it's science.

GISS data

NCDC US data

NCDC global datage 

Now you know why climatecentral is wrong, and why facts will not change their minds.  If you show them the facts, they just change their story, so that they are still right, and you are wrong.

(for a more rational view of this exact same issue, see here)